The End of Classic Bikes?

[Duccout]

I have been pondering this subject for a while, but have hesitated to post on here because this is an enthusiasts forum, not a political one, but the news this morning that more electric cars were sold in March than in the whole of last year has swayed my hand.

Is there any future for classic bikes? Once electric becomes the standard, which is gathering speed and may happen before the end of the year, the Government will be able to turn the screws on petrol and diesel cars by raising the tax until few will be able to afford the costs of filling up, on top of which, petrol stations will switch over to electric, or simply close because the demand will fall below the economical level, as refinery costs escalate. We have already had to accommodate E10, which means that we have to fill up with super unleaded, and as Esso is the only brand without ethanol in the UK I have only one station anywhere near me that I can use. We all know the anguish of trying to find a filling station when out somewhere and there is a shortage of fuel, a situation that will become the norm as refineries are blockaded and the Government is either unwilling to do something about, or is actually colluding in the situation.

I keep my eye on certain classic bikes for sale that I covet, and it appears to me that they are not selling, so is this the effect of the electrification of our transport? Are buyers being put off because of the uncertainty of petrol supplies in the future? Some rare classics may always fetch high prices due to their classification as two wheeled art, which the collectors love as investments, but are standard classic bikes going to be any use in the future? Are enthusiasts willing to ride miles in search of fuel, or keep supplies at home and carry a can strapped on the back? Anyway, I would be interested in what others think.

Cheers,

Colin

[A.I.M]

Hi Colin, this is an interesting question. I read a relevant Sunday Times Driving article a couple of months back about it, and I quote from it as follows:

"The petrol and diesel car ban only affects sales of new vehicles, so yes, you’ll still be able to buy and sell used cars that are powered by combustion engines after 2030, and you’ll also be able to buy and sell used hybrids after 2035."

"...those already on the road will still be legal to own and drive. As the average life of a car is 14 years, new petrol and diesel cars bought in late 2029 could remain on the roads until 2044 at least."

"At the moment there is no suggestion that classic cars powered by traditional petrol or diesel engines will be forced off the road. There are more than half a million “historic” vehicles — those over 40 years old — on British roads and it is unlikely that will change. It is expected that in the twenty years or so following the petrol and diesel car ban, old-style fuels will become less sought after, more expensive and harder to come by as a niche product for enthusiasts."

I reckon it will be well into the 2040s or even 2050s before internal combustion vehicles are in the minority, but you are absolutely correct that taxation policies could change that. In France the average age of vehicles appears to be much higher than in the UK, so it could take even longer here.

As I prepare to put my scrambler back on the road I have been considering the use of Alkylated petrol. Although it is a bit more expensive it has no added ethanol that could damage the engine and fuel system, it is a very stable, low-volatility fuel, and may be a bit more eco-friendly if you can believe the marketing. It could even be used mixed with ordinary petrol to partly mitigate the effects of ethanol. I would be interested in anyone else's experience.

All the best,
Al

[Duccout]

Hi Al,

We cannot predict the future, but in Britain cities are introducing clean air schemes that are penalizing internal combustion engines and making them effectively banned, which will propel even more people to change to electric, leading to the demand for petrol falling so low that garages die out. Another concern of mine is the eco-warriors that we have, who are blockading refineries and letting down car tyres, but may spread their net wider and begin to obstruct petrol stations and God knows what else.

I saw a report the other day that there was a call to ban steam trains, and it is only a matter of time before F1 and MotoGP become electric championships. Net Zero in Britain has become the new religion, and is being pursued with religious fervour, and no opposition will be tolerated!

Colin

[themoudie]

Aye Colin,

Net Zero in Britain has become the new religion, and is being pursued with religious fervour, and no opposition will be tolerated!

There are none as zealous as a convert!

As for the fuel availabilty quandary, so far I have found this only to be an urban myth. With the '74 450 MKIII running a "standard" white cam, a flat top road piston with a CR ~9:1, AMAL MKII 32mm, B7HS NGK plug and a slightly restrictive exhaust. Final ratio on a 428 chain of 17:42 sprockets, with low aspect ratio tyres (Avon StreetRunner, 3.00x18 and 3.50x18). I have been filling up with both E5 and E10 and adding Castrol Valvemaster (without octane booster) at the recommended rate of 1cc to 1litre fuel, since putting the bike back on the road last year after my vexatious explosive problems were resolved by using an Electrex EI sytem.

So, with 4,500 miles under the wheels, the majority at a cruising speed of 50-60mph on A, B, C and U roads, with gradients up to ~15% tackled, without any "pinking" and no effective " loss in performance", even though ethanol has less stored energy than petrol and returning steady 100 miles to 5 litres of fuel across the board.

I use fuel from my local supermarkets, brand filling stations and my local spot market garage. When the brand filling stations are asking £1-85.9/litre for E5, 99 octane fuel and my local spot market garage is selling E10, 95 octane fuel for £1-68 litre as a cost price "service" to the local community, I know where my cash goes.

Ethanol won't damage your engine, make sure it gets hot, no runs less than 20 miles! Change the "rubber" for Viton items and if you aren't going to run the old bird for more than 6 weeks, drain the fuel tank, hoses and carb, leaving them ventilated so that condensation cannot form, a wee spray of ACF50 or similar won't go amiss or interfere with the next fill.

As for the great "When?", life is too short, wear them out and if you cannot ride them, sell them and get something you can. Those 750SS, 750S, 900SS bevels are lovely looking bits of kit, but if you can't throw your leg over them, they become another oxidising lump. Like steam engines, motorcycles need to be started and ridden, there is no craic in a museum, as there is at the side of the road or on a station platform.

Below is a link to a video shot at the Tayside Norton and Moto Guzzi Clubs gathering at a local cafe on 3rd April 2022. There was plenty of craic from 10:00 to 14:00 enjoy the bikes and good health, Bill

Tayside Norton and Moto Guzzi Clubs gathering at a local cafe on 3rd April 2022

[blethermaskite]

Colin,
Yes I suppose it is a bit political, however you are absolutely correct to be concerned for the future of our interest/hobby/passion or whatever you want to call our enthusiasm for classic/vintage bikes and cars (and boats and planes and trains) as the owner of a pre war(1934) hill climb racing car which I now have to run on avgas.....I need the TEL and the octane rating.....I am very aware of what is almost certainly coming down the line for classic bikes in terms of the basic requirements for use. If we consider the relatively recent past where we were denied leaded petrol for reasons that do not bear close scrutiny, we were (by government of the time) encouraged to switch to diesel powered private cars, again something that not only does not bear close scrutiny but has been demonstrably shown to be one of the worst generally available polluting fuels ever, then/now the whole nonsense of ethanol loaded petrol (whatever petrol is nowadays?) and of course right now the so called environmentally friendly electric vehicles.
My son in law is a renewable energy design consulting engineer who said and I quote, " think I'll just stick with the 2litre petrol car for the forseeable future".........as an aside he is betting on hydrogen power. When you look a little further into electric vehicles their "green" credentials are pretty suspect, batteries that are made from a finite and dwindling supply of rare metals, and have you looked at how the batteries are recycled? because they are encapsulated in epoxy resin the only way to dismantle them and recover the good bits is to burn them! mostly in India.
The bottom line of all this is another government driven so called "green" agenda that rightly or wrongly is going to steam roller over us just like all of the above, and if you add into the mix the very high percentage of real (as opposed to retro) classic/vintage vehicles owners getting rather elderly there isn't much of a long term vote loss to worry about.
As usual I'm sure we will ride it out, but at the cost of further inconvenience and expense, inevitably this will further push classic/vintage vehicles out of the hands of the the average enthusiast and back to the days of old and interesting vehicles being the playthings of the rich.
Nuff said,
Cheers,
George

[graeme]

Bill, what is a craic ?

[themoudie]

Morning Graeme,

Long past my bed time and I'm sitting here doing genealogical research!

Craic? I quote from the Urban Dictionary:https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Craic

Crack or craic is "fun, enjoyment, abandonment, or lighthearted mischief; often in the context of drinking or music". This sense of the word crack is found in Irish English, Scottish English, and Geordie as well as Mackem in North East England. In Ireland the spelling craic is now more common than crack. This spelling is also found in Scotland.

I hope this explains what I'm trying to convey about these sorts of motorcyclist relaxed meetings. However, at this one the fare was bacon rolls, soup, fresh fruit scone, with butter and jam, tea or coffee, rather than a drop of the crater (whisky) or beer.

Good health to you and I hope the 450's are behaving? Bill

[graeme]

Thank you Bill,
Same as a “fat time” here.
Yes, the 450’s are behaving themselves. Thanks for asking.
I doubt I’ll have to worry about petrol being banned .
But the price is of concern.
Luckily the singles are very frugal and way more fun than modern large capacity motorcycles.

Regards
Graeme

[graeme]

Hello Colin,

You asked "is there any future for classic bikes?"

As long as there is classic people there will always be classic bikes.

Graeme

[Dan C]

It seems there are always people who have an interest in historical forms of transport from horse and cart, to bicycles, aircraft, boats, trains, cars and motorbikes. The question is will there be petrol for the things that use petrol and my feeling is that as long as there is some form of demand, there will be someone willing to supply the product (provided of course that there are economic oil reserves available).

I can't see western democratic governments enforcing a total ban on petrol/diesel vehicles that have already been purchased by consumers. So while ever enthusiasts are willing to maintain petrol vehicles I think governments will have to allow the sale of petrol. And as electric vehicles become the majority the "environmental concerns" about petrol vehicles will become less of an issue so its difficult to foresee a situation where petrol is unavailable (at least until oil reserves become uneconomic).

But it won't be as readily available as it currently is so I agree with Duccout - we'll have to plan our rides to ensure we can get petrol when we go for a ride......

Cheers
Dan